Forecasting Hungarian Export Volume

The paper summarizes the research on forecasting the Hungarian export volume. We elaborated a two-step procedure. In the first step we forecasted foreign demand, then in the second step we forecasted Hungarian export using the best outcome of the first step together with real exchange rate and import series. We used several econometric techniques and tested our results statistically by two criteria. We compared the precision and stability of the different forecasts. The ARIMA forecasts were employed as a benchmark. We found that in terms of both criteria foreign demand forecasts were significantly better than those obtained with ARIMA. However, in the case of the Hungarian export volume our results were only better in terms of the stability properties. Therefore the choice between the different forecasting methods was not obvious, so a ’Consensus’ index was also computed as a weighted average of different forecasts, where the weights were negative functions of imprecision and instability.

Recently forming stalagmites from the Baradla Cave and their suitability assessment for climate–proxy relationships

Determination of the long-term behavior of cave systems and their response to changing environmental conditions is essential for further paleoclimate analyses of cave-hosted carbonate deposits. For this purpose, four actively forming stalagmites were collected in the Baradla Cave where a three-year monitoring campaign was also conducted. Based on textural characteristics and radiocarbon analyses, the stalagmites are composed of annual laminae, whose counting was used to establish age–depth relationships. Fast and slowly growing stalagmites have different stable carbon and oxygen isotope compositions as well as trace element contents that could be attributed to differences in drip water migration pathways. The stable isotope compositions were compared with meteorological data of the last ∼100 years indicating that carbon isotope compositions of the stalagmites may reflect changes in precipitation amount, while oxygen isotope compositions are more related to temperature variations. The combined textural–geochemical–meteorological interpretation lead us to select the isotope record that can best reflect variations in environmental conditions and can be used for further evaluation of the climate–proxy relationships

Collaboration between SAML federations and OpenStack clouds

In this paper, we present a novel OpenStack module called regsite for enabling easy access for researchers to OpenStack research clouds. Many researchers have an account in an Academic AAI federation, such as national research and education federations or the eduGAIN SAML meta-federation. The software solution presented here makes it possible to use these institutional accounts together with so-called virtual organization managers for authenticating and authorizing in OpenStack instances in a clean and secure way. An analysis of earlier generations of OpenStack-related developments trying to tackle the same problem is given. Many aspects of this software integration can be generalized to serve as a template for federative research cloud access. Keywords: SAML, OpenStack, Research loud, eduGAI

Hidrosztatikus nyomással kiváltott elektronszerkezeti változások szilárd testekben = Hydrostatic pressure induced changes in the electronic structure of solids

A pályázat célkitűzése volt fázisátalakuláshoz közeli rendszerek paramétereinek finom hangolása hidrosztatikus nyomás alkalmazásával, valamint az egyes fázisok jellemzése nyomás alatt végzett elektromos és mágneses mérésekkel. A nyomás elsődleges hatása az átfedési integrálok módosítása, különösen az általunk vizsgált rendszerek irányított pályái esetén. Ennek az egyik alapvető következménye a korrelált elektronrendszerek nyomás által indukált fém-szigetelő átmenete. Ezt a jelenségkört a BaVS3 d-elektron rendszerén, valamint kolosszális mágneses ellenállást mutatató manganátokban tanulmányoztuk. Nyomás hatására erősödik a mágneses félvezetők lokalizált momentumai közti csatolás, így a nyomás függvényében végzett kísérletek egyedülálló lehetőséget biztosítottak a ferromágneses fázis kialakulásának megértéséhez. A nagy mágneses terű mágnesezettség mérésekhez épített, magnetooptikai Kerr-effektuson alapuló mérőrendszerrel a mágnesezettséget 10-200 nm vastagságú rétegeken is nagy pontossággal meg tudtuk határozni. Az anomális Hall jel és a mágnesezettség között kísérletileg kimutatott skálatörvénnyel igazoltuk, hogy az anomális Hall jel térfüggése a mágnesesen felhasadt sávok eltolódásától származik. Az eredményeket 10 tudományos közleményben publikáltuk, összesített impakt-faktoruk: 41.770. A publikációk pdf formában letölthetők erről az internet címről: http://dept.phy.bme.hu/K62441 | The aim of the project was to fine tune the microscopic parameters by application of hydrostatic pressure in materials that are in the vicinity of a phase transition, and to characterize the various phases by transport and magnetic measurements. The primary effect of the pressure is the modification of the wave function overlap, especially in case of the oriented orbitals characteristic to the materials studied in the project. A basic consequence is the pressure induced insulator-metal transition. We have investigated this phenomenon in the d- electron system of BaVS3, as well as in various manganates exhibiting colossal magnetoresistance (CMR). The application of pressure enhances the coupling between the localized moments in magnetic semiconductors, and thus supplied unique opportunities to study the development of ferromagnetism in these systems. In order to determine the magnetization of 10-200 nm thin (In,Mn)Sb films we have developed a sensitive MOKE technique (magnetooptical Kerr effect). We have established a scaling relation between the anomalous Hall effect (AHE) and the magnetization, and demonstrated that the field dependence of the AHE is due to the shift of the magnetically split bands. The results were published in 10 papers, the cumulative impact factor of 41.770. The publications can be downloaded from http://dept.phy.bme.hu/K6244

Az Egyek-pusztakócsi mocsarak (Hortobágyi Nemzeti Park) kétéltűfaunája

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Bioactivity of Inhaled Methane and Interactions With Other Biological Gases

A number of studies have demonstrated explicit bioactivity for exogenous methane (CH4), even though it is conventionally considered as physiologically inert. Other reports cited in this review have demonstrated that inhaled, normoxic air-CH4 mixtures can modulate the in vivo pathways involved in oxidative and nitrosative stress responses and key events of mitochondrial respiration and apoptosis. The overview is divided into two parts, the first being devoted to a brief review of the effects of biologically important gases in the context of hypoxia, while the second part deals with CH4 bioactivity. Finally, the consequence of exogenous, normoxic CH4 administration is discussed under experimental hypoxia- or ischaemia-linked conditions and in interactions between CH4 and other biological gases, with a special emphasis on its versatile effects demonstrated in pulmonary pathologies